Written on: December 8, 2025 by Phillip J. Baratz
During the cold snap last Winter, we experienced many deliveries that were much larger than expected based on the In-Tank Level (ITL), and our clients had more run-outs than usual. As the old saying goes, “Anyone can deliver oil in Winter.” Consistent heating usually means predictable consumption, especially when K-factors and Heating Degree Days (HDDs) align. However, as delivery intervals become harder to plan and forecasting gets more complicated, customers can end up running out of oil or needing emergency fills—leading to frustration for everyone. As a heating oil delivery company, you’re all too familiar with the headaches that arise when consumption becomes unpredictable.
The Changing Landscape of Home Heating
Many homeowners, especially in the Northeast, now rely on supplemental systems such as heat pumps and wood pellet stoves. While these reduce oil use in mild weather, extreme cold changes the equation—often surprising both oil companies and homeowners.
Supplemental heating methods have limitations in lower temperatures. Heat pumps are highly efficient in mild weather with a coefficient of performance (COP)* of 3–6, but efficiency drops sharply as temperatures fall. Even advanced models have a COP of only 1.75 at 5°F. This means more electricity for less heat—so oil use jumps in the coldest weather. Wood pellet stoves are another popular supplemental heating method, but users report difficulty starting them below 11°F, with possible efficiency drops from their usual 75–90%.
What Does this Mean for the K-Factor?
When it’s mild, customers’ K-factors remain steady. However, extreme cold causes K-factors to drop, showing a surge in oil use and more unexpected deliveries or run-outs. For example, in a normal day (30°F), the K-factor is equal to five; on an extremely cold day (0°F), the K drops to three.
Suddenly, these customers burn nearly twice the usual oil—often depleting the tank much faster than standard delivery cycles plan for.
The BOS Trap: A Word of Caution
A typical Back Office System (BOS), when it sees a big jump in gallons delivered relative to the HDDs since the last delivery (high gallons, low-calculated K), will typically respond by drastically dropping the “working K” for that tank.
If the large “miss” last Winter was caused by the customer’s supplemental system failing in the extreme cold (and not a permanent shift in oil usage), the BOS’ logic could backfire. The next delivery—often in late Fall or early Winter—may be much smaller than predicted, risking an overcorrection and service issues.
Takeaways for Dealers
Integrate weather data and customer heating profiles into your BOS and outreach strategy. Proactively identify customers with supplemental systems and log that data in your BOS.
Ensure these customers have remote tank monitoring. Communicate with them about the quirks of their systems—and yours.
Preparation and smart data use remain your best defense against unpredictable Winter swings—and your best path to satisfied customers. Call us for more information. ICM
*Coefficient of Performance (COP) is a measure of efficiency. In this issue’s column, the COP is the ratio of useful heating or cooling provided to the amount of electrical energy consumed. For example, a COP of three means that for every unit of electricity used, the heat pump provides three units of heating or cooling. The higher the COP, the more efficient the heat pump is. ICM
